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Old 08-10-2018, 02:25 PM
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When "their" wages rise to our level or "our" wages sink to their level AND we eliminate OSHA, WorkersComp, Unemployment Ins. and the factories really return..... Then, perhaps no tariffs, trade wars, currency manipulation. Gotta trust the a wipe politicians to "really fix it". Not likely to happen anytime soon.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:59 PM
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The left thinks this is a long term tax. It’s not in place to be long term. They have already tried to settle it by talking and no actions by other countries has happened. It’s now time to put the pressure on. Once the other countries feel the burn it will be time to negotiate again and the tariffs can be lifted.
You have to be kidding me with the whole sky is falling with trump in office. Stock market falling 200pts, unemployment going up? Yeah right. The stock market going down 200pts is no big deal. It will go right back up. How do I know this? Hmm. I’m getting ready to buy a brand new 1 ton truck and my accounts have never looked this good. My taxes are lower and I’m bringing in more money on every single paycheck. And this is in CA none the less.

The tariffs won’t put that much stress on people. The left wanting to make min wage jobs pay the same amount as middle income is what will kill America. Why should a dead beat flipping burgers and smoking dope on his lunch break get paid the same that I do for having an actual career?

All of this will blow over. Our country is producing jobs like crazy right now. If you can’t get a job in today’s market then something is really wrong. We are opening up new refineries because all the restrictions are being lifted and actually allow us to build. Once we get enough infrastructure built we can stop importing so much from other countries. No reason we should bring oil, steel, uranium, engineers, and more to support this country.

Well time to go look some more at new trucks. Ford or Ram? I’m a Ford guy so the new lariat is calling my name.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:05 PM
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So , what are the choices? Trump imposed tariffs to hurt segments of our population or he did it to reach a bigger goal? I choose to believe the latter. There’s no guarantee he’ll be successful, but I like that approach better than sticking our heads in the sand and letting other countries take turns with the end that’s exposed. The idea of subsidies is interesting. Can we use the collected tariffs to fund them? I know some countries subsidize certain industries, while we tax those same US industries, guaranteeing we can’t be competitive. It’s is funny that the same folks that think we should pay more taxes cry over the tariffs.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:09 PM
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you are quite the fortune teller Garrett. Apparently you know all kinds of outcomes that elude even the smartest among men (or women). the DJIAs going down 200 points is a big deal. it is volatile. no one goes into the DOW because they want to ride the coaster, we have the NASDAQ for that. Over time, yes the DOW does show a positive trend line, but American investors tend to be nearsighted and want short term returns.

As far as your taxes, again you are way ahead of everyone. My tax advisor told me last week that the rules are still being written and it's going to be difficult to do tax planning until they are finalized. Yes, my paychecks are bigger - I have no idea whether I get to keep the margin. We also don't know if the tax revenues will cover the national expenditures. Get off this left or right thing - neither side has the monopoly on outcomes. The word "war" doesn't carry with it a quick or painless conclusion. Industry is going to suffer, and your position is that their side will capitulate first - that's a hope and nothing more. You may like the premise, but please don't pretend that you have some crystal ball. Is Trump going to throw billions of dollars at industries that are affected? That doesn't sound like a conservative approach to me. Some of you decry the money spent on social programs, but that's exactly what this is.

Vince, no I don't think Trump did it with the intent of hurting US industry. I do think he tends to rush into decisions without a full understanding of the ramifications, and his ego is too big to contemplate that any policy decision could ultimately fail. He still has a base, and obviously some of them are here.

Aside from all that, always good to hear from you.

Paul
Still driving a 2001 F 150
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:54 PM
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Definitely not a fortune teller. Just calling it like I see it. Every time we get some kind of break here in CA the “can’t say a side now without upsetting you paul” try’s to take that advantage away from me and give it to some person who doesn’t event want to try.
If I remember Paul, you are or were a school teacher? I can’t exactly remember but thought someone told me that you are a history teacher?

The stock market is not unstable right now. It does go up and down because people get scared. That is how you make money. Buy when people freak out and hold onto it. Stocks that never had a chance are booming in the economy because they can now grow.

Our current president is a quarter into his first term. He’s not going to be able to change the world from the 8 years our past pres set us back in just over a year. But he has made some major changes that will make this country strong and have a backbone again. He’s doing it with NATO and other countries are starting to follow. He’s actually giving the American people a chance at living instead of turning it into a 3rd world country.
I can definitely say that I have responded to way less suicide calls this year that I have in the past. I drive down the streets in my city and people are flying the American flag high and proud, I see so many more people wearing shirts with American flags. People are turning around and starting to be proud of their country again.

Every day when I turn on the news and see some slob with purple hair, black lipstick, a nose ring a bull would be jealous of and wearing fish net stockings that are torn with boots on crying their eyes out about this country’s problems I know we are headed the right way.

In 7 more years when trump is out of office I’ll have to be stressed again. Hopefully Pence or someone of the like will carry on the good work.

Back to looking at my crystal ball.
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:02 PM
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Let not take this to a personal attack level, please.
I read a trade war is more than just tariffs. Trade war actions might reduce consumer confidence, undercut business investment, and reduce investors’ appetite for risk. Companies anticipating more tariffs and export barriers, for instance, might choose not to expand their operations in the United States since firms don’t know if they might be impacted by more retaliatory tariffs to come.

Plus, there is the risk that the trade war could continue to escalate, doing far more damage to global growth. Economists estimated that a leveled-up dispute might slow global growth down by a percentage point—including as much as 2.5 percentage points in the United States and 2.3 percentage points in China. In that scenario, there would be “severe” implications for the stock market, which could fall as much as 21 percent in the United States.

I hope they are wrong. We already know the Chinese govt. subsidized the factories that out produce the world. How much of this hard earned superiority will they be willing to surrender now? How much would we expect our President to surrender if the tables were turned?
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by scootr View Post
Let not take this to a personal attack level, please.
I read a trade war is more than just tariffs. Trade war actions might reduce consumer confidence, undercut business investment, and reduce investors’ appetite for risk. Companies anticipating more tariffs and export barriers, for instance, might choose not to expand their operations in the United States since firms don’t know if they might be impacted by more retaliatory tariffs to come.

Plus, there is the risk that the trade war could continue to escalate, doing far more damage to global growth. Economists estimated that a leveled-up dispute might slow global growth down by a percentage point—including as much as 2.5 percentage points in the United States and 2.3 percentage points in China. In that scenario, there would be “severe” implications for the stock market, which could fall as much as 21 percent in the United States.

You're wasting your time typing. Its like being one of the 3% in the military. If you arent the one going over to fight, then you dont understand the cost, and you flaunt war as a viable option, instead of the last resort.


Some folks dont see the long game, only the short term. Everything is win or lose, no middle ground.



Some folks dont understand the American farmer is taking it in the shorts right now, and the "fix" is a 12 billion dollar welfare check after that - what? they are losing market share that they wont get back... And for what? But some folks will have a nice shiny new truck so its all OK.
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:34 PM
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“severe” implications for the stock market, which could fall as much as 21 percent in the United States.
This got me thinking, so I took a look back. Even if it did fall as much as 21% we would still be better off than the previous admin. I took a sample day from 2016, and even chose to use a sample date where stocks rose to a record level for the first time since 1999, on that particular date, August 15, 2016. And according to my math the S&P as of today is up over 30% from that record date in 2016. Dow also over 30% up, and NASDAQ is more than 40% up.


I'm not a stock market guy and don't claim to be. But again, that comment made me want to look and compare. I will say as a middle class working adult, things are better for me now than they have been in a long time!
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:51 PM
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You're wasting your time typing. Its like being one of the 3% in the military. If you arent the one going over to fight, then you dont understand the cost, and you flaunt war as a viable option, instead of the last resort.


Some folks dont see the long game, only the short term. Everything is win or lose, no middle ground.



Some folks dont understand the American farmer is taking it in the shorts right now, and the "fix" is a 12 billion dollar welfare check after that - what? they are losing market share that they wont get back... And for what? But some folks will have a nice shiny new truck so its all OK.
First new car is always a thrill.
I wonder if 12 billion could not have been better spent as manufacturing incentives without hurting anybody?
I've enjoyed the open discussion and the messages.
I'm sorry to say prices will be going up most everything made.


FYI these tariffs were not approved by the US international trade commission as they normally would be. They were implemented by the president using a law that allows executive power if the trade imbalance threatens national security. Interesting. So either a problem we are told is 30 yrs old came to a national security head overnight or another president is using sneaky tactics to get what they want without govt body support. All of Europe is complaining about the way this was done. They are effected also.

sthudson says "I will say as a middle class working adult, things are better for me now than they have been in a long time!" I agree we are recovering nicely right now from the recession. Which is one reason why some political leaders think now is a good time to do this... at a time when most of America is doing so well it can take a hit
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:59 PM
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I love it when people talk about the stock market. Especially those that think something magical happened on January 20, 2017.

Consider this graph

https://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow...-last-10-years

The market doubled (100% increase) in roughly the first 20 months of Obama.
The market has risen 26% in the first 20 months of Trump.

Even "new math" tells me 26% is less than 100%.

Bottom line is the market has been on a fairly constant upwards trend since Obama took office. All Trump has done is continue the trend. So please stop acting as if he is some sort of savior.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:07 PM
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Oh, and another fun graph of actual data. Unemployment. Yep, current situation is simply an extension of the long term trend under Obama. Trump's a miracle worker!!

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutpu...me=LN_cpsbref3
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:11 PM
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Data is the devils putty, it can be extracted or molded to whatever you like
Still I have to pay this unexpected bill.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:34 PM
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Yes a teacher, no not a history teacher. I guess that puts me intellectually between primates and lawn furniture.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:42 PM
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Data is the devils putty, it can be extracted or molded to whatever you like
Still I have to pay this unexpected bill.
Right, because verifiable data collected over time is not to be trusted. Got it
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:42 PM
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This thread is, unfortunately, very much like the pollical system. Each individual has their idea of how things should be and everyone else is wrong. Both the current and previous pundits wrote and are writing laws bypassing everyone else and could not care less what everyone else thought. No politician, whether a brand new one or one of many years cares about anything but their own position, power, and ideas. This is why things are getting chaotic and if nothing major changes it will continue until we tear each other apart.
If each side would get organized within their party then join the other party in legitimate, honest, and sincere conversation on what needs to be done they could stop the pundit from signing things. They could also fix most of the major problems the country has as well as bring people together. But judging by the latest round of political commercials it would appear Politian want to bee's are just getting more radical and individualized so I don't think things are going to get any better polically.
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